[Tobacco use during adolescence may predict smoking during adulthood: simulation-based research].

INTRODUCTION There is little information about the age of onset of smoking among adolescents and its continuation into adulthood. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of tobacco use during adolescence to predict the prevalence of adult smoking using simulation models. MATERIAL AND METHODS Five models were examined based on initiation and tobacco use rates among 421 adolescents. After simulating different scenarios, expected adult tobacco use rates were obtained and compared to those observed in a validation sample made up of 1218 adults. RESULTS Models adequately predicted adult smoking rates by comparing them to data obtained using the validation sample (Markov: 37.6% versus 34.5%, p=0.109; dynamic simulation: 32.0% versus 34.5%, p=0.197). The simulation demonstrated that smoking, at least, one cigarette per month during adolescence sufficed to predict adult tobacco use rates. Eliminating tobacco use during adolescence may reduce the rate of tobacco use among adults by 12.2-16.2%. CONCLUSIONS Adolescent tobacco use models adequately predicted the proportion of smokers among adults. Scenarios of restriction regarding the age of onset of tobacco use showed the expected reductions in the rates of tobacco use among adults. Although it was not evaluated in this study, restricting tobacco use among adolescents may help to protect their health and would probably have an impact on the reduction of tobacco-associated mortality among adults.